Climate Change is not just rising temperatures, and heavy rains......

Climate change encompasses a wide range of impacts beyond just rising temperatures and altered weather patterns. It refers to long-term changes in the Earth's climate system, and understanding its consequences is crucial. The benchmark of a 1.5 degree Celsius increase in global temperature above pre-industrial levels holds significant importance. Scientists estimate a 66% chance of crossing this limit between now and 2027, with current temperatures already at 1.2 degrees Celsius. To limit warming to 1.5 degrees, we have a remaining carbon dioxide budget of only 380 billion tonnes.

The urgency lies in the fact that in 2020, the budget was 500 billion tonnes, and within a short period, we have consumed half of it. Previously projected to last eight years, the budget may now only cover five years. Reaching 1.5 degrees Celsius has severe implications.

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Carbon budget Predictions

Over 14% of the global population will experience extreme heatwaves, and a 1.2 degree Celsius rise has already caused numerous deaths worldwide. Increased frequency and severity of wildfires, such as those witnessed in Canada and the Amazon, further exacerbate the carbon budget and pose risks to human health. Rising sea levels and ocean acidification are also inevitable consequences.

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Canada Wildfires

Moreover, exceeding or reaching 1.5 degrees Celsius could trigger irreversible tipping points. These are conditions where changes in the climate system become self-perpetuating, leading to abrupt and dangerous impacts. Nine identified tipping points include ice sheet melting, permafrost thaw, and forest fires. Their consequences are significant:

Greenlandic ice sheet melting could raise sea levels by 7 meters,

Permafrost melt can release large amounts of methane, and

The West Antarctic ice sheet melt could contribute to a 3-meter sea level rise.

The Amazon rainforest's increased dryness and heat could escalate forest fires, cause biodiversity loss, and release substantial carbon dioxide emissions.

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The 9 Tipping points

Current observations reveal the accelerated melting of Greenlandic ice sheets, losing over three times more ice annually than three decades ago. If all tipping points are triggered simultaneously, the Earth's temperature could surge from 1.5 to 4 degrees Celsius within 20 years. The accompanying changes in temperature and precipitation patterns, depicted in visual representations, highlight the unfavourable future. Certain regions will experience intensified heat, while others may face colder climates. The risks of floods and droughts will increase, rendering the Earth less habitable.

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Change in average temperature for different temperature rise

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Change in Precipitation for different rise in temperature

Despite efforts for rapid decarbonization, there remains a high probability of surpassing the 1.5 degree Celsius target. Consequently, climate change research is increasingly focusing on resilience and adaptation measures rather than solely prevention.